AFL Footy Tipping

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Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Archive of Bookies Odds for 2006.

This is an essential tool for all who are tipping or betting on AFL football.

Click Here For - Archive Of Bookies Odds For 2006

Monday, April 10, 2006

AFL Football Topical Discussion & Chat

Questions Answered

Are Richmond Really That Bad?

No. They proved on the weekend that their round one belting was indeed an abhorration, and that they have the talent to match it with the best. However, what they also proved, was that they're probably going to be as inconsistent and painful to watch for Tiger fans as they have been for the past decade.

Are Richmond Really That Bad? ... Click Here To Discuss

Are Geelong The Real Deal?

Yes. A 77-point win in round one, and a 69-point win in round two (even though neither were against a top tier side), have shown that Geelong means business. Could they be the first team to take both premierships in a year for God knows how long? If they manage to stay injury free they will definitely go very, very close.

Are Geelong The Real Deal? ... Click Here To Discuss

Has Rocca Still 'Got It'?

If 'it' is the ability to take games by the scruff of the neck, then yes, he most certainly does. For anyone that doesn't know this is Anthony we're talking about...not the big Sav. He single-handedly crushed the Hawks in a rampaging third quarter, but only time will tell if Rocca can turn in this kind of performance consistently, and against better opposition.

Has Rocca Still 'Got It'? ... Click Here To Discuss


Questions Asked

Sydney On The Slide?

Written off by most punters and critics (unfairly most Sydneysiders will tell you), they've opened up their 2006 campaign with two blanks. They would've nearly pencilled in a 'W' against the power this weekend, but now an 0-2 start puts huge pressure on them to even make the 8. But as they say, a week is a long time in footy...and we're still 5 months from finals.

Sydney On The Slide? ... Click Here To Discuss

Can Essendon Win If Lloyd Doesn't Tear The House Down?

By the looks of things so far it's still unknown. But the stats to date cast an ominous shadow. The Bombers needed 8 goals and 26 touches from Lloyd to notch up a 27-point win over the reigning premiers in round 1. He bagged just 4 goals and had 14 touches on the weekend and they went down by 18, despite the fact that Monfries played the game of his life and kicked 5. He won't do that every week, if ever again this season, so they're going to have to find other avenues to goal if they're to finish in the top half on the ladder.

Can Essendon Win If Lloyd Doesn't Tear The House Down? ... Click Here To Discuss

Where To For The Dees?

Well, the yo-yo theorists will tell you that this is supposed to be an 'up' season for Melbourne, as their final ladder position has gone up one year and down the next for the past ten seasons. However, looking at their games to date I'm not so sure. Beaten by Carlton in round one (who proved they still have a high degree of ineptitude in their limp showing against Fremantle), and then showing a distinct lack of legs in the second half against the Bulldogs, the Demons have served up some worrying signs.

They have the chance to prove themselves in the next month with games against top sides Adelaide, Sydney, and Geelong. If they don't win one or two of them it's cellar-time for the red and the blue.

Where To For The Dees? ... Click Here To Discuss

Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value

Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value

Click Here To Discuss - Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value

It's often easy to select the team you think will win,but how do you determine if you're getting value or not?

If you keep taking 1.40 on teams who should be 1.60,you will lose in the long run.

Many factors contribute to a teams chances of winning,most of these factors are reflected in the betting markets.

Interstate home ground advantage is well known & influences the betting market accordingly, as do injuries, current form, previous encounters, coach v coach, among other stats.

To identify value we need to identify factors that do contribute to a teams chances of winning but are not proportionately reflected in the betting market.

One such factor is the teams supporter base.

Whenever one of the most popular teams play one of the least popular,we never get true value on the popular team & the less popular team will almost always be slightly over the odds they should rightly be.

Another huge factor that go's largely unnoticed is the total days rest advantage. Coaches talk about it, punters mostly dismiss it.

If 2 teams play on a Saturday, one played last Sunday & the other played last Friday night. Counting from the previous week, one team has had over 40 hours more recovery time than the other.

While this may at first sound insignificant, it's important to note that for the last 2 seasons, if you only bet on teams that had a 40+ hour recovery time advantage over their rival, using this selection criteria alone, you'd have scored a success rate of over 70%.

**This can be confirmed by anyone willing to research it, fixtures & results are available all over the net.

Yet overall the average price per selection was over 2.00.

**(I did not include mid season break situations where one team has 13 days & another has 15 days rest, It doesn't appear to hold a significant advantage over longer periods of time)


Any thoughts on this?

I'm always looking for more ways to determine good value,If anyone has tips on value selection methods, I'm interested in hearing about them.

Cheers.

Click Here To Discuss - Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Questions Answered & Asked Round 1

Hey guys, here's something one of our members (Frizzo) is doing every Sunday evening, just for fun. He will address the big questions from the round, both those that have been asked, and those that have been answered.

Depending on the response of course...if you all think he is full of rubbish then let him know, but otherwise, he hopes it'll stir up a few issues and get people talking.

Questions Answered

Is The Brisbane Dynasty Over?

Yes. Well and truly yes. The 2006 Brisbane Lions are a far cry from the premiership winning teams. All those wondering if that slide to end last year was only temporary, it's not. Their performance against Geelong showed a couple of things:

1.) Brisbane's superstars (excluding Brown) no longer have the match-winning ability they once did. I would be very surprised if we see Akermanis and Voss, particularly Voss, turn a game on it's head this year.

2.) Their youngsters are not yet developed enough to perform well at the AFL level. "Potential" can be a very ugly word in footy, and we've all been hearing it a lot lately about Brisbane's youth. Two names spring to mind as players that have to take that next step within the next year or two. Merrett and Brennan. Both have shown "potential" but are yet to deliver. Hopefully, for Lions fans atleast, that potential soon turns into consistent ability to perform at the top level.

Is The Brisbane Dynasty Over? - Click Here For Discussion

Can Matthew Lloyd Perform As Captain?

If anyone saw Saturday night's game they know the answer to this is 'yes'. Best on ground by a mile, not only kicking 8 goals, but racking up over 25 posessions in total, Matthew Lloyd has seemingly added a new dimension to his game. Whether or not he can impact games week in and week out remains to be seen, but his performance alone against Sydney has made the Bombers one of the teams to watch with interest for season 2006.

People seem to forget that Matthew Lloyd is a three-time Coleman Medallist. His drop in form early last year was largely due to his injury, and from rounds 15-21 he averaged 5 goals a game. Starting with 8 goals in the first round this year...may it just be possible that we are yet to see the very best of Matty Lloyd?

Can Matthew Lloyd Perform As Captain? - Click Here For Discussion

Will The Pre-Season Turmoil Take It's Toll On West Coast?

Looks like no. Cousins and Sampi both performed admirably against the Saints, while the rest of the star-studded midfield seems to be going from strength to strength. Chris Judd broke a handful of PBs in pre-season training, while Daniel Kerr fresh off his astonishing Brownlow run is continuing that form on into the new season. Add to this the fact that Dean Cox is looking more and more superhuman in the ruck, and you have the makings of a team that look every bit as capable as last years.

Will The Pre-Season Turmoil Take It's Toll On West Coast? - Click Here For Discussion

Questions Asked

Do Freo Have What It Takes To Give The 2006 Finals a Shake?

On Sundays performance no, but Fremantle have struggled a lot in Tasmania, and it's possible that the match against the Hawks was simply an anomoly. What's more worrying was Chris Connoly's post-match press conference. Connoly answered none of the big questions raised from the game, such as why they were so thoroughly smashed in the middle in the third quarter, and seems content to lose most of his interstate games and win the home games.

Considering 5 of their 12 games at Subiaco are against Adelaide, West Coast (twice), Geelong, and St Kilda - all seemingly difficult games - the Dockers will need a handful of W's coming from the eastern side of the country if they're even to [i]make[/i] the finals this season. They have the ability to do it, but can they finally put it all together and make this their year? I asked my magic 8-ball and it said..."Cannot Tell You Now".

Do Freo Have What It Takes To Give The 2006 Finals a Shake? - Click Here For Discussion

Can Port Adelaide Cover The Loss Of Tredrea?

Not looking good off the back of the season-opener, but the Power have a number of unproven talls, and only time will tell if any of them can step in to (partially) fill the void left by Tredrea.

Can Port Adelaide Cover The Loss Of Tredrea? - Click Here For Discussion

Could The Dogs Really Be As Good As People Have Predicted?

Looks very, very likely. Will have to wait and see if they can consistently perform as they did on Friday night, but so far so good for the Doggies.

Could The Dogs Really Be As Good As People Have Predicted? - Click Here For Discussion