Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value
Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value
Click Here To Discuss - Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value
It's often easy to select the team you think will win,but how do you determine if you're getting value or not?
If you keep taking 1.40 on teams who should be 1.60,you will lose in the long run.
Many factors contribute to a teams chances of winning,most of these factors are reflected in the betting markets.
Interstate home ground advantage is well known & influences the betting market accordingly, as do injuries, current form, previous encounters, coach v coach, among other stats.
To identify value we need to identify factors that do contribute to a teams chances of winning but are not proportionately reflected in the betting market.
One such factor is the teams supporter base.
Whenever one of the most popular teams play one of the least popular,we never get true value on the popular team & the less popular team will almost always be slightly over the odds they should rightly be.
Another huge factor that go's largely unnoticed is the total days rest advantage. Coaches talk about it, punters mostly dismiss it.
If 2 teams play on a Saturday, one played last Sunday & the other played last Friday night. Counting from the previous week, one team has had over 40 hours more recovery time than the other.
While this may at first sound insignificant, it's important to note that for the last 2 seasons, if you only bet on teams that had a 40+ hour recovery time advantage over their rival, using this selection criteria alone, you'd have scored a success rate of over 70%.
**This can be confirmed by anyone willing to research it, fixtures & results are available all over the net.
Yet overall the average price per selection was over 2.00.
**(I did not include mid season break situations where one team has 13 days & another has 15 days rest, It doesn't appear to hold a significant advantage over longer periods of time)
Any thoughts on this?
I'm always looking for more ways to determine good value,If anyone has tips on value selection methods, I'm interested in hearing about them.
Cheers.
Click Here To Discuss - Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value
Click Here To Discuss - Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value
It's often easy to select the team you think will win,but how do you determine if you're getting value or not?
If you keep taking 1.40 on teams who should be 1.60,you will lose in the long run.
Many factors contribute to a teams chances of winning,most of these factors are reflected in the betting markets.
Interstate home ground advantage is well known & influences the betting market accordingly, as do injuries, current form, previous encounters, coach v coach, among other stats.
To identify value we need to identify factors that do contribute to a teams chances of winning but are not proportionately reflected in the betting market.
One such factor is the teams supporter base.
Whenever one of the most popular teams play one of the least popular,we never get true value on the popular team & the less popular team will almost always be slightly over the odds they should rightly be.
Another huge factor that go's largely unnoticed is the total days rest advantage. Coaches talk about it, punters mostly dismiss it.
If 2 teams play on a Saturday, one played last Sunday & the other played last Friday night. Counting from the previous week, one team has had over 40 hours more recovery time than the other.
While this may at first sound insignificant, it's important to note that for the last 2 seasons, if you only bet on teams that had a 40+ hour recovery time advantage over their rival, using this selection criteria alone, you'd have scored a success rate of over 70%.
**This can be confirmed by anyone willing to research it, fixtures & results are available all over the net.
Yet overall the average price per selection was over 2.00.
**(I did not include mid season break situations where one team has 13 days & another has 15 days rest, It doesn't appear to hold a significant advantage over longer periods of time)
Any thoughts on this?
I'm always looking for more ways to determine good value,If anyone has tips on value selection methods, I'm interested in hearing about them.
Cheers.
Click Here To Discuss - Aussie Rules Betting - Identifying Value
posted by Master of Cyberspace @ 9:19 PM
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